Some initial thoughts on how Doug Wilson should spend his summer. A couple of caveats before we begin:
- I’ve been thinking about this since the last buzzer of Game 4 and I change my mind just about every hour, so this likely won’t be the only blog post on this topic.
- I’m obviously making some pretty big assumptions about market-rate for players, home team discounts and who wants to stay. I’m okay with all of that, as that seems to be part of the business. But what causes the waffling is, as a fan, it’s so hard to know the intangibles, the role someone plays in the locker room, the injuries, illnesses or even personal distractions players dealt with at various points in the year, essentially the people aspect of the business. This is the one that is impossible to ignore when putting together a locker room, but impossible for a fan to grasp or account for.
- And the last one, I wish I had video to dissect and to test my hypostheses. But as of now, I don’t. Hopefully that will change in the near future.
So, consider this a first draft of a living document / theory that will evolve as we learn more this summer. Here we go.
The Goalies
I’m starting from the goalies out, because as you will see this will have a huge impact on freeing up cap space. That’s right, I say we let Nabby walk. In the interest of full disclosure, I’ve never been a big fan of Nabby. I fully respect his athletic ability, but I strongly suspect he lacks the mental toughness to be an elite goaltender. Overall, his stats are good, but if you look at when goals are scored or from where (again, I wish I had video to back this up), I strongly suspect that he causes more harm than good. He makes the big acrobatic saves, but he lets in the five-hole, top-of-the-circle shots on the transition after a Sharks offensive flurry, killing all the momentum.
Aside from weak goals and momentum swings, I generally don’t like Nabby’s attitude. As a fan, this is hard to evaluate. But he doesn’t come off as a team player. He is the first to criticize the team play, and not in a constructive way. Earlier this season when he called out Pickles after a loss for not blocking a shot, it was the last straw for me. Nabby needs to learn you win as a team and you lose as a team.
But the biggest issue with resigning Nabby has nothing to do with on-ice play or his off-ice attitude, it has to do with the reality of the salary cap and the fact that $6 million goaltending doesn’t seem required to win championships. There are plenty of goalies on the free agent market and I think the Sharks could do just as well spending half as much on another goalie.
Not to mention the kids need playing time. I hope Wilson picks up a veteran goalie who can pick up games when the kids falter (whether it be Greiss or Stalock), who doesn’t cost so much that we don’t feel bad when one of the kids steps up and steals the #1 spot.
Defense
First, I’m assuming Blake will retire. But I’ll come back to that. Here’s who I would like to see back next year:
Boyle – Murray
Vlasic – Demers
I’m not sure I see Demers as a #4 D, but I definitely think he’ll fill a full-time slot next season. Basically, it’s his to lose.
I didn’t list Huskins, because I’m not a big fan. The staff seems high on him, but I don’t think his value / cost ratio is appropriate. There are a lot of low-cost D-man on the free agent market, not to mention kids in the system who could battle for his spot. Unfortunately, Huskins is still under contract and Wilson will have to find someone to take him off his hands. So the reality is, he just might be back.
Let’s assume he’s not (this is my blog after all). I’d like to see the Sharks pick up a solid #4 defenseman. Someone who can play with Vlasic and give Demers a safer learning ground as a #5 or #6 defenseman. By my calculations we have roughly $2.5 million to spend on this spot (more on my $ calculations in a later post) and I think that gives us plenty to work with. Again, there are a lot of D-man on the free agent market. We also have the option of doing a D-man swap – or I might just be dreaming. We’ll also need to pick up a reasonable #6. Someone who can compete with the kids for that last spot.
Alternatives: If Huskins does stay, he’ll be our #4 / #5, for less than I’m proposing we spend, which just frees up some money for a stronger #6 and / or some 4th line forwards. But I’m getting ahead of myself. While I love Blake, if he returns, we better not pay him much more than $1-2 million. He probably has another season in him, but we’ll need to pick up a #6 D that can eat up some minutes and we’ll need to free up some of his salary to pay that D-man. No chance, Blake and Huskins both stay, simply can’t afford it. I’d put money on Blake retiring.
Oh, I almost forgot. No chance Wallin is back. Costs way too much and didn’t perform. He was a bargain, given that another team was picking up his salary, but there’s no chance he’s coming back.
Forwards
I have yet to hear a compelling argument for why we should let Patty walk and don’t expect to hear one from me now. Marleau has shown that he is a top performer in any scenario. Yes, he had another slow start to the playoffs, but he was virtually the only player to put the puck in the net during the entire Chicago series. He had a career year, after coming off an adversity-filled summer and honestly how can you not love this guy? He’s going to have to want to stay to make it happen though. It’s doable, if he’s willing to take a slight home team discount and Wilson is willing to go with a long-term contract that degrades in value over time. Gotta love those salary-cap tricks. I’d rather see us sign Marleau now and have to trade or let Joe Thornton walk next summer. In the long run, Marleau has more value to the organization.
So, what I’m saying is, i’d like to see the top three come back. After that, it gets more complicated.
As for the second line, I think we need to sign Pavs and Seto. Pavelski earned it, through and through. Seto is inconsistent, but is young and has plenty of time to develop. Both are far too valuable to lose through RFA. I expect both to be resigned. I don’t necessarily expect Setoguchi to be a mainstay though. That’s because I think Clowe or Seto could be extremely valuable in the trade market. As a fan, i’d be sad to see either go, but the reality is if it helps with cap space and helps to fill in some of the holes on the blue line, it might be worth it.
I’d like to see the 2nd line stay in-tact, but if we can get a solid D out of a trade, I think trading one of the wings on this line is worth it.
As for the third line, I’d love to see the following settle in:
Mitchell – Couture – McGinn
I think McGinn has shown he is ready for a spot and Couture was phenomenal during the late season and playoffs. If we see a 2nd line winger depart over the summer, I fully expect to see Couture moving up to the 2nd line, with Manny moving up to fill his spot. But if the 2nd line stays in tact, I think this would be a great 3rd line.
As for the 4th line, I say resign Manny and let everyone else compete for a spot. I really like Scott Nichol, but he’s getting late in his career and like Roenick, he can only keep a spot from a kid for so long. If he earns it, great. But I’d like to see some competition for these last few forward spots.
That’s it for now. I’m sure much more will come as we learn more.
