The NHL takes a lot of criticism for having essentially two seasons. The regular season and the long playoffs. I’d argue that the long road to the Stanley Cup is what makes it such a great trophy. The critics, however, aren’t without merit and I’ve often wondered what’s the best path through the regular season to set a team up for playoff success.
Obviously having success in the playoffs is much tougher than following some pattern to get in. After all, if we look at the Stanley Cup finalists dating back to 1994 (the first year with the current format), we see that there are few trends.
Only once during this time period, did both #1 seeds make it to the finals.
Only three times did a lower seed beat a higher seed in the finals.
Only once did a team win back to back years.
Very few teams even make it back to the finals in back to back years. Penguins and Red Wings both did it in 2008 and 2009. When will we see that again? Devils did it in 2000 and 2001. Dallas did it in 1999 and 2000. Detroit in 1997 and 1998, winning back to back no less.
If you look hard, there might be a trend of a team making it to the finals, losing, and then making their way back within a few years. The Penguins lost in 2008, won in 2009. The Ducks lost in 2003, won in 2007. The Canes lost in 2002, won in 2006. The Devils lost in 2001, won in 2003.
But then there are teams like Edmonton, Buffalo, Washington, Philadelphia, Florida and Vancouver, who made it to the finals one year and have yet to claw their way back.
Of course, it’s not just about where teams end up but how they got there. In 2009, the Penguins were the #4 seed, but a few months before the season’s end, they were so bad they were at risk of missing the playoffs. This year the Red Wings seem to be following the same pattern. It being an Olympic year, I can’t say I disagree with this strategy.
Not that I think a team really sets out to take it easy the first half and then turn it on during the second half. That’s clearly not what the Penguins were doing in 2009. They had some growing up to do and went through a coaching change during the process. The Red Wings looked mentally and physically tired during the first half of this season. Did they need the pressure of almost missing the playoffs to find gas at the bottom of the tank?
There’s lots to unpack here. I don’t even dare to assume that I’ll find the answers. But I will explore patterns and possibilities in this post and future ones.
And on that note, here’s a thought. If I were an NHL coach, I’d train my team to win 4 out of 7 games throughout the regular season. I’d divide the regular season up into a series of 7 games series. Teams talk a lot about not losing two games in a row. But imagine the confidence you would have if you entered the playoffs having practiced winning 7 game series all season long. I’m not suggesting that winning 4 out of 7 all season would be easy. After all, that’s why a team should practice at it all year, so that by the time April rolls around, they are damn good at it.
Here’s a quick summary of Stanley Cup Finalists since 1994.
- 2009 #4 Penguins over #2 Red Wings
- 2008 #1 Red Wings over #2 Penguins
- 2007 #2 Ducks over #4 Senators
- 2006 #2 Canes over #8 Oilers
- 2005 Lockout Year, no cup awarded
- 2004 #1 Tampa over #6 Calgary
- 2003 #2 Devils over #7 Ducks
- 2002 #1 Wings over. #3 Canes
- 2001 #1 Avs over #1 Devils
- 2000 #4 Devils over #2 Stars
- 1999 #1 Dallas over #7 Buffalo
- 1998 #3 Detroit over #4 Washington
- 1997 #3 Detroit over #3 Philadelphia
- 1998 #2 Colorado over #4 Florida
- 1995 #5 Devils over #1 Wings
- 1994 #1 Rangers over #7 Canucks